The current balance of supply and demand

At present, the level of demand for non-GM soybeans/derivatives is significantly below
the available supply. Global demand for non-GM soy is probably about 10-12 million
tonnes of bean equivalents. Global supply has been and is, currently significantly
above this volume; looking at Brazil alone, the primary source of non-GM soybeans
and derivatives, total exports of soybeans and soymeal were respectively in 2003/04
23.4 million tonnes and 14.7 million tonnes. GM soybeans accounted for 23% of total
production in Brazil in 2004, mostly located in the Southern most states. Thus if it was
assumed that about 50% of the Brazilian crop (that grows roughly North of Sao Paulo)
is not subject to any co-mingling with the GM soybeans (i.e. crops grown in the
Northern half of the country are unlikely to be mixed with crops from the South where
the GM crops are concentrated), and then about 25 million tonnes of (non-GM)
soybeans were probably available in the Northern half of the country. Whilst a
significant proportion of this crop may be used domestically, this represents a fairly
large supply base from which the global demand for non-GM soybeans can be met.
Thus global demand has been relatively easily serviced by available supplies
from Brazil alone. In this circumstance, it is not surprising that the price differential
for GM versus non-GM soybeans/derivatives has been fairly small.