Cost versus Benefit—the Calculus

Eight basic economic facts about the UK-EU relationship are
listed to set the context in which estimates are made. Direct costs
and benefits are assessed for each of five main categories (not
including the Common Fisheries Policy or the effect of the UK’s
structural trade deficit with the EU). Estimates are expressed to
the nearest half-percentage point of UK GDP, and rated according
to reliability.
The outcome is a ‘most likely’ total current net direct cost of
four per cent of GDP per year, within a range stretching from a
‘rock-bottom’ low of 1.5 per cent GDP to a high of over five per
cent. Net cost is unlikely to diminish in future as seven measures
already in the EU pipeline come into effect.